Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.161113 6.060225 7.053474 8.229851 9.582740 11.087478 12.885424
2025-08-03 3.707321 4.896729 6.353167 8.257257 10.669186 13.609832 17.452377
2025-08-10 2.694784 3.941699 5.609543 7.979510 11.231852 15.505288 21.505414
2025-08-17 1.996991 3.198402 4.935315 7.588506 11.487512 16.944298 25.078447
2025-08-24 1.580935 2.744362 4.545436 7.474998 12.040484 18.781027 29.346196
2025-08-31 1.284933 2.401215 4.240061 7.404653 12.600408 20.640716 33.806813
2025-09-07 1.123782 2.242130 4.188022 7.705775 13.747466 23.480800 40.022982
2025-09-14 0.954948 2.030500 4.003483 7.742193 14.443598 25.656359 45.386589
2025-09-21 0.816992 1.846017 3.830648 7.761654 15.093963 27.799743 50.882856
2025-09-28 0.703363 1.684889 3.670687 7.772429 15.714887 29.935306 56.547265
2025-10-05 0.676846 1.701526 3.857678 8.466109 17.664073 34.571209 66.970648
2025-10-12 0.613701 1.623503 3.837878 8.742621 18.844382 37.923433 75.386595
2025-10-19 0.559023 1.557167 3.838753 9.075705 20.203292 41.790191 85.204663
2025-10-26 0.487486 1.434701 3.697223 9.088844 20.924622 44.533437 93.205019
2025-11-02 0.406780 1.269478 3.428347 8.779751 20.933786 45.887864 98.665799
2025-11-09 0.333253 1.104625 3.128897 8.351001 20.624211 46.561196 102.832063
2025-11-16 0.286567 1.003852 2.969420 8.226397 20.967072 48.595159 109.906321
2025-11-23 0.248899 0.920143 2.838237 8.149365 21.404810 50.862380 117.648515
2025-11-30 0.231726 0.896754 2.865484 8.477861 22.832548 55.388942 130.520319
2025-12-07 0.206371 0.839558 2.787402 8.517558 23.564219 58.440923 140.461182
2025-12-14 0.183633 0.785142 2.707156 8.538778 24.250939 61.450063 150.549098
2025-12-21 0.163462 0.734289 2.627958 8.550528 24.913657 64.460220 160.877748
2025-12-28 0.164162 0.762901 2.800731 9.307065 27.591510 72.400122 182.959475